mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-04-17 09:02 AM - Post#238937
In response to mbaprof
The way that the Pomeroy rankings move is essentially as follows:
Take a team's efficiency margin (pts/poss) in a game on offense and defense. Take the opponent's season-long efficiency margins, adjusted for the site of the game (+~5pts/100 poss for home games, opposite for road games). That yields the adjusted efficiency margin for a team in a game. Sum those up across the entire season and you generally get a team's adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.
Wins and losses, in and of themselves, do not matter, KP is a margin-based system, since margin is far more descriptive of a team's true ability than simple Ws and Ls.
There are some more nuances that just that. KP uses preseason weighting to keep the numbers from bouncing around crazily to start the season - those preseason weights diminish throughout the year and are pretty negligible by late December. He also uses some recency weighting in the calculation.
Most of all, though, it's just adjusted efficiency margins driving the system.
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