I'd like to have an argument, please. - Basketball U.

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Post: I'd like to have an argument, please.

T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1173

Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05

12-20-17 04:49 PM - Post#240823
In response to Jeff2sf

Jeff2sf Said:

well i refuse to look it up

but basically the idea of changing your mind when monty allows you to do so.

3 doors, you pick door 3, he says do you wanna change doors, you're supposed to say yes despite every fiber of my being saying it shouldn't matter.

It's actually a lot simpler than that, and comes down to a crucial, additional piece of information that Monty provides you. Your initial choice has a 1/3 shot at being correct. The chances of the car (or whatever) being behind EITHER OF THE TWO REMAINING DOORS are 2/3. Monty then TELLS YOU that the car is NOT behind one of those two remaining doors. Therefore the odds of the car being behind the third door are still 2/3.

So pick the other door.

I honestly never understood all the confusion. (Unless my grasp of the initial problem is incorrect, which is possible.)

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