dperry
Postdoc
Posts: 2214
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
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12-30-17 03:52 AM - Post#241609
Sometimes I hate real life.  Anyhoo, finally I get you your update just in time for the beginning of the Ivy season. Going game-by-game:
Binghamton: It ticks me off that we cannot beat this team. They have a lot of decent three-point shooters, which nullifies our usual defensive strategies; their best player can shoot the three and penetrate, and she just ate us alive. They have another guard who is deceptively dorky-looking, but who seems to get to every loose ball and offensive rebound. In crunch time, they were also able to put pressure on our ball handlers and cause enough bad plays to make the difference. This was the game in which our regular-season streak of always winning when we break 60 ended.
Lafayette: A desultory affair, in which we shot horribly (28% FG, 17% 3FG, 59% FT); however, the Leopards failed to take advantage, and Penn cranked up the defense enough in the fourth quarter to pull away.
Georgia Tech: Wasn't able to watch the first game of the Junkanoo Jam (played in an exceedingly tiny gym in the Bahamas; they had to pull the bleachers on the one side halfway in to make room for the scorer's table, and some local kids were hanging off the edge) due to other commitments, but my sense is that with the exception of Katie Kinum, who got 17 (more on her later), they just didn't have the firepower to keep up with the Yellow Jackets (a top 30 team).
Missouri St.: Game 2 of the JJ started dreadfully, as they shot 27% overall and 11% from 3 in the first half with 10 turnovers, and trailed by 18 at the break. However, Lauren Whitlatch got hot in the 2nd, knocking down six threes, and they improved overall to 47% and 64%, as well as crushing the Bears on the boards and finishing the game with an 8-0 run to win by five. At the time, I was rather bummed by this, thinking we had barely escaped from a bad team, but Missouri St has since moved up into the top 100 in Sagarin, having played a very difficult schedule and given several good teams a difficult time, so not as bad as I thought it was.
La Salle: This, on the other hand, is the nadir of the season so far. They started on an 11-0 run (including two FT's before the clock even started due to the Explorers getting T'd up for delay of game), and ended the first Q up 13, but things just started crumbling after that. They got into foul trouble in the second half, and La Salle was able to exploit this inside, shooting over 60% in the second half; meanwhile, Penn went dead cold, shooting 27% in the second and 0-7 from 3. Given that La Salle is about 240th in the country at the moment per Sagarin, just a really bad night.
Notre Dame: As noted earlier, things started looking up in this game. Again, they didn't have the offensive firepower to stay with the Irish at the end, but they forced 22 turnovers, and held ND to what is still their lowest score of the season (remember that this is a team that gave UConn a decent game on the road.) In the first half, Nwokedi was actually intimidating their front line with her shot blocking.
St. Joe's: This was a tough defensive struggle; in other words, right up our alley. Eleah Parker (and that's Ee-lay-uh, not Uh-lee-uh; I get this straight from her mom!  ) had her first really big game, getting 15 pts. and 8 boards. When the Hawks cut Penn's lead to two with about six to go, Nwokedi took over, first making a nice pass to Parker in the post for a layup, then knocking down a three, and finishing with a nice drive to the hole of her own; meanwhile, the defense held St. Joe's scoreless for over four minutes. This is only our third win against them ever (sigh  ).
Rhode Island: After exams, they returned with a nice tuneup against the Rams. Ashley Russell had a career-high 17, and the other four starters reached double digits; they also forced twenty-three turnovers and blocked seven shots.
NJIT Tournament: This has taken place over the last couple of days, and they took an easy championship, beating VCU by 30 and the hosts by almost 40. Parker had 34 points and 14 boards between the two games, with Nwokedi adding 23 pts. of her own, and they shot over 40% from 3 in both games.
So, how are they looking compared to the scenarios I posited at the start of the season?
The good:
--Parker has started from game 1 and has performed as advertised; she has now scored double-digits in six straight games and has looked strong on the boards as well. While I love Stipanovich dearly, Parker does at least three things on offense every game that Sydney just couldn't do. She's not quite the defensive player that Stip was, at least yet, and particularly early on they definitely had some problems with the interior defense in general, but lately they seem to be getting that straightened out. Parker and Nwokedi are also building a better rapport with every game; in particular, the last couple of games they have been setting each other up in the post beautifully. The one surprising thing is that Parker is only getting 21 minutes a game so far; I don't know if she still needs some work on her stamina or what, but given the way she's been dominating lately, you'd think she'd be out there more often.
--Ross has ended up playing a lot at the point, but she's doing much better than I expected; while her scoring is down about 1.5/gm from last year, her assists/gm is up about 1, and her A/TO ratio is almost 2. Furthermore, Katie Kinum, who has been the most pleasant surprise among the freshmen, is getting almost 16 minutes a game and handles the ball well; Ashley Russell has started most of the season and has improved her ball handling; and Kendall Grasela has also been getting quality time and is a very unselfish player. The three of them have taken a good bit of the ball-handling load off of Ross, and in the last few games, they have started to consistently create opportunities with their ball movement; in particular, they have been getting a lot of wide-open threes.
--Whitlatch has been streaky from beyond the arc, but her highs are higher than they were her first two years, and she shows no ill effects from her injury. Kinum is a stone-cold gunner; she's shooting 47% from 3, and is the first person they've had since Baron who can make threes off the dribble. Russell and Ross are both competent from long-range, and Beth Brzozowski, while losing minutes to Kinum and Grasela, is still doing pretty well herself. Phoebe Sterba was hurt to start the season and is just now getting back into the rotation; if she can play more and light it up, this team is going to be a terror from the perimeter.
--They're much deeper this year; McLaughlin has regularly run ten people out there a game, and with Sterba back it's probably going to be eleven eventually (although Russell just got hurt; I don't know how seriously yet.) The biggest surprise in that regard is that Tori Crawford, my preseason nominee for First Year Most Likely to be an AI Booster, has actually put in some competent minutes at power forward, allowing both Nwokedi and Parker to get much needed rests. I suspected last year that McLaughlin was using the non-conference schedule as a testing ground, and I'm convinced of it this year, so the rotation may tighten up a bit when the league season starts in earnest, but it's still a great situation.
The bad:
--The juniors are still underachieving. Russell has been starting and is definitely better than last year, but there are still too many plays where she ends up exceeding the limit of her skills; she needs to learn to stay within herself. Aghayere, while the first front-liner off the bench, has not really made any progress, and Kristen Daley and Deja Jackson are still only seeing garbage time.
--The defense has not been as tight this year; they're giving up about six more points a game so far, and as mentioned earlier, the interior has been a particular problem; there have been a lot of backdoor cuts and poorly contested drives to the basket, and it has cost them a couple of games. I think it is getting better now, but it needs to continue to improve in order to handle some of the teams we have coming up.
Turning to the rest of the league, as a whole we're the ninth-best conference in the country; I don't have last year's standings but I think it was pretty much the same then. The worst news is that Despicable Her and the orangy minions are playing considerably better than they did last year, going 9-3 against one of the top 40 schedules in the country per Sagarin. They've knocked off Seton Hall, currently standing at 44, beaten three other teams between 50 and 100, and played Villanova, a top 25 team, within three points, which is probably a lot better than we're going to do against them. So far, Carlie Littlefield has been the big revelation among their freshmen; she's started every game and is averaging nine pts. Abby Meyers, who was supposed to be the big catch, is playing competently but not starting or getting huge minutes. It's not easy to figure out from the basic stats why they're doing so much better; there doesn't seem to be any significant improvement in any of the major categories, but nevertheless, something is going on there (I'm really tempted to subscribe to the advanced stats site when the price goes down in a couple of weeks.) Bella Alarie is scoring 15 a game and making the strongest argument for POY so far; I don't know who the heck is going to guard her for us. Meanwhile, Brown has once again put up the gaudiest non-conference record, but once again it's against a lousy schedule. Dartmouth has seen a major improvement, but judging from their stats, it's been done by giving four of the five starters 30+ minutes a game, which will probably not be sustainable over six back-to-back weekends. Harvard is sputtering once again; they've given a couple of good teams decent games, but have no big wins yet, and their freshmen are not contributing much. Yale has also seen an uptick in record, but with only one quality win (at TCU); they will still need to be watched out for. Columbia is mediocre so far, but getting great play from Camille Zimmerman and good play from their freshmen; Cornell is just not very good.
The best news, with Princeton looming in a week, is that the offense has been clicking the past few games and has been very balanced, giving opponents a lot of problems to deal with. The ball movement in particular has pleased me. However, I do have to remind myself that the last three games have all been against the dregs of D-I; the Tigers, Villanova, and Temple are all going to be a lot harder eggs to crack. Furthermore, our RPI is down in the 150's, so unless league play raises that a lot more than I think it will, the auto bid is the only option we have. My heart is saying that they're starting to come on at the right time, but my head thinks that they're running a little below the median scenario I suggested at the beginning of the year. We will find out which one is right starting next Saturday.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!" |
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