Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-08-18 11:27 AM - Post#242669
In response to 10Q
the funny thing is i had the Francis quote going through my head about you all.
The non conference record is B E Y O N D meaningless. What a stupid, luddite take. Look who we played!
Fairfield - 212 KenPom. On the road. Not exactly a good loss and I'm sure I didn't predict we'd lose that one.
LaSalle, 134. at home. Not a great loss, but essentially Princeton. You win some, you lose some.
Navy at home. KenPom 215 21 point win. Good-ish but easily expected win.
Penn St Brandywine. Come the f on.
Northern Illinois. 238. Neutral court. We won. V Predictable.
Towson. 110. Neutral court. We lost. Kind of a win some, lose some sort of game.
UMKC - 278. Neutral court eke out a 3 point win. Terrible. Predictable win
Friggin Monmouth - 163. Away. 5 point win that took years off my life. That said, in the win some lose some category.
Villanova - 1. Loss. Totally fine to get drilled by 28 points to them. they're great. predictable loss
Howard - 336 on the road. We won. of course predictable.
Lafayette - 272 on the road. we won, of course predictable
Dayton - 141 on the road. We won. I'd call that a toss up game and nice win.
Del St. 3 5 0. Second to last. At home. Of course we were going to win that. A pox on all of our houses.
Toledo - 156 at home. Toss up game. If Dayton's a good win, feel this is a bad loss. But again, win some, lose some.
Princeton - 130 at home. Toss up game, we won, cool!
So going into the season, we had 5 certain victories in Del State, Penn Brandywine, UKMC (well we didn't know we'd get to play them till we lost to Towson) Lafayette, and Howard. I'm sure only an genius would disagree with that.
We had one guaranteed loss in Villanova. So 5-1 with a baby being able to predict that.
Then we have three victories that should have occurred with sub 200 teams in Fairfield, Navy and Northern Illinois... only we actually dropped one game. So we should be 8-1 and we're 7-2.
So what's left
LaSalle Towson Toledo (losses)
Dayton, Princeton, Monmouth (wins)
My thought going in was to predict wins for Monmouth, Toledo. Losses for Dayton and Towson, and then we'd split Princeton, LaSalle.
I mean there's really no way to conclude we wouldn't be 10-5 if we're thinking we're at least KenPom 150. For those of you who think we're actually better than that, you'd probably get us to 11-4.
This schedule is so. fricking. easy.
Ok fine, I'll look at last year's schedule.
Robert Morris - 266. We win, predictable.
Miami - 42 and away, we lose, predictable.
Central Conn - 341. We win. predictable
Navy - 206. Away. We lose. Kind of like Fairfield game.
Nova - 2. We lose, guaranteed.
Temple - 118. we lose. toss up game.
Lafayette 330. We win. duh
George Mason 123. We lost. toss up game.
UCF - 68. Road. We win. Best win of either year so far.
Drexel - 250. We win. Pretty much a def win.
Fairfield 204 - We win. probably should, especially at home
At Princeton - 58. We lose. to be expected.
So looking at that schedule, we had 4 definite wins instead of 5 this year. we had 4 expected losses in UCF, Miami, Princeton (all on road) and Villanova but we actually won one of them. We went 1-1 in our 200-249 games. And we had two toss up games which we lost both.
You'd have predicted the same record as what they got except you'd have expected to win a toss up (maybe) and lost the UCF game.
I mean jeez louise. there's no here here.
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