Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1900
Reg: 11-29-04
|
01-19-18 01:10 AM - Post#243940
In response to mrjames
Block rate and conversion rate at the rim are worse than last year. Your steal rate is down big. The things the defense most controls are significantly worse than last year. Yes, the rebounding has been good, but a lot of that is because opponents are missing more of the shots that are easier to rebound (jumpers and free throws) than they did last year and fewer of the shots that are tougher to rebound (at rim and specifically blocks at the rim).
Two of the things that regressed hardest against you in league play last year (3PT% and FT%) are the primary things driving your “improved†defense. I’d rather have it be things that are more under my control.
Best part about Penn’s D this year is how it scares opponents off the line, but that also turned a bit in league play last year. Need to keep pushing opponents off the line and into 2PT Js.
I’d rather have last year’s D, frankly.
I am also in the club of not knowing the details of ORat and DRat. I understand your points about things a defense controls (steals and blocks). I don't think those stats really capture the full picture on defense. For example, a player could theoretically be really good at staying in front of the player he's guarding and pressuring their shot. He/she could hold them scoreless but still not have a block or steal to their credit. Would this result in a good DRat?
I think that is what many of us are seeing. We don't have any great shot blockers, although Brodeur has some capability there. We don't have any steal specialists like Ibby. At the same time, we all used to cringe at how bad our defense was. It looked completely disorganized with no purpose. I think all of us see something different this year, whether it reflects in the stats. Other teams score on us, but this team isn't frustrating to watch on defense anymore. Even if they don't have better controllable stats, we see them in front of players, putting more pressure on the three point shots, and getting more DRebs.
One of the reasons I think the Ivies did better against us than our out of conference opponents is that we had a gimmick 1-3-1 defense which Ivy coaches took more time to prepare. They also had the shooters to punish us. They also were much more aggressive about double-teaming Brodeur. That is why the emergence of Betley changed our fortunes. Howard was a great player but I saw him as more of a counterpuncher on offense than a guy who could routinely create baskets.
I realize the stat crowd will say that better defense should show up in the numbers. I agree, but I'm wondering if there's something not captured in the DRat. Maybe I'm deluded by the team winning more, but it doesn't look close by the eye test.
|
