mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
02-01-18 10:47 AM - Post#245354
In response to SomeGuy
The difference between 267 and national average isn't that large (~5pts per 100 poss or about 3.5 pts per game). So, they're not bad enough offensively where even if they really exploit their strengths, they'd still be a mediocre offense.
What's important is how they get to that number. They consistently bully their way to the free throw line (six of 16 games above 50% FT Rate, which is elite, and all but one of its games above the AVERAGE FT Rate for three Ivy teams). Between its gaudy free throw rate and its strong free throw shooting percentage, it's getting the fifth-highest percent of its points from the line in the nation. In Ivy play thus far, it's only increased those numbers (50% FT Rate average and 28% of points from the line). The only team that's had any success keeping Brown off the line was Dartmouth (which, though maligned previously, had the best defensive performance against Brown) due to it switching to zone.
Where Brown struggles is 1) if you can turn it into a jump shooting team or 2) if you have a credible shot blocker and turn the pressure up on the perimeter for steals. Harvard did both of those successfully with Chris Lewis on the floor and ran up big margins on Brown. But Lewis was in foul trouble (see above) and only played 15 mins - fortunately for Harvard, that was enough to provide a margin it couldn't squander.
Penn will be a 10-ish point favorite in both games, so my comments here are in the context of "worry relative to being a substantial favorite." I can just see a scenario where Penn can't keep Brown in front of it to force it to shoot jump shots, lets Brown get downhill where it doesn't have a credible shot blocker and has to foul, exposing its frontcourt depth issues. It's possible that even in that disaster scenario, Penn will have built up enough of an advantage (like Harvard did) to win regardless. From a personnel perspective, though, it's an interesting matchup, especially given the fact that Penn is 8-0 when holding opponents to a free throw rate under 30% and 4-6 over that mark.
|