Untitled Document
Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale

Username Post: Midseason Efficiency Rankings
Posts: 5373

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-13-18 03:36 PM - Post#247732    
    In response to PennFan10

No doubt - the point is not supposed to be at all surprising. Very intuitive. It’s more about the description of the game. If all I see is the final score, seeing the game script can be very useful context for understanding how the game went. I won’t know if a 10-point game was a tight one where a handful of free throws in the final minute pushed it from competitive to comfortable or if the game was healthy double-digits throughout but the losing team finished on a run in garbage time to close it to 10.

My hypothesis too (untested) is that the final stretch of the game can get unrepresentative of the normal course of the game. For instance, if a team down double-digits throughout hits a bunch of threes and gets the leading team to miss 1-and-1s and parts of double bonuses and miraculously comes all the way back, that may not be as useful a signal of that team’s true quality as the bulk of the game played more normally. So, it might be that adding game script info to the efficiency margin info (and the expected points per shot info) could enhance the predictive nature of team performance moving forward.
NOTE: You are viewing an individual Post. View the Entire Topic

Copyright © 2004-2012 Basketball U. Terms of Use for our Site and Privacy Policy are applicable to you. All rights reserved.
Basketball U. and its subsidiaries are not affiliated in any way with any NCAA athletic conference or member institution.
FusionBB™ Version 2.1 | ©2003-2007 InteractivePHP, Inc.
Execution time: 0.201 seconds.   Total Queries: 13   Zlib Compression is on.
All times are (GMT -0500) Eastern. Current time is 04:41 PM