mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-20-18 08:01 PM - Post#248728
In response to GIQUAKER
A couple reasons I disagree with this general premise:
1) Dartmouth is better offensively this year than it was in either season with Boudreaux. It also improved defensively over last year. Two years ago, Dartmouth was better defensively, but that was basically all driven by turnover rate and Malik Gill being a spark plug for steals.
2) The game script for the Harvard game was -6.8. While all “what would have happened if†games are tenuous to start, it’s even more tenuous to start by locking in a highly improbable comeback (according to win odds models, Harvard was more highly probable to win up 41-24 than Dartmouth was at any point in the game) and building from there. It’s entirely possible that Boudreaux’s garbage defense would have allowed Harvard to salt the game away offensively. Or that he would have knocked out many of the minutes of a guy like Chris Knight, who was instrumental to the comeback.
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