mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-04-19 12:56 PM - Post#275023
Interested to hear people's thoughts. Here's what the data says in terms of Top 4 odds (from Bart Torvik's site - he doesn't break ties, so these odds are a bit overstated, as they'll include ties for fourth in which case one or more teams would still miss the tourney:
Yale - 99%
Harvard - 98%
Princeton - 96%
Brown - 64%
Penn - 55%
Dartmouth - 17%
Cornell - 5%
Columbia - 1%
I generally agree that there are really three tiers here:
Harvard, Yale, Princeton
Harvard still needs to sweep this weekend to feel good (the back end of that schedule is absolutely brutal). Meanwhile, Yale won't be favored by fewer than 3 until the last weekend of the season. And unless Princeton gets swept this weekend, it's gotta feel great.
All three of these teams can shift their focus to the title hunt if they can get to 5-1 coming out of the weekend, but 4-2 or worse and the focus should remain on making the Ivy tourney.
Penn, Brown
Huge pivot point this weekend - including both Friday AND Saturday, as the winner on Friday night will then have a chance to get closer to sealing the tiebreak on Saturday night. If we look at the expected top three teams (Harvard, Yale, Princeton), Brown's already 0-for-3 on "top win" opportunities that are huge in the tiebreaker, including no chance at Yale, which is most likely at present to be the top team. Penn is just 0-for-2 - no chance at nabbing one from Princeton - and could get a likely insurmountable one on Saturday.
Even though Brown isn't likely to be an underdog again until the final weekend of the season, and Penn should only be once more after this weekend, it's hard to see a team rebounding from 1-5 this year. A desperate Saturday night from Friday's loser could end up keeping that team in the race and buying it a key chip in the tiebreaker race.
Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth
Columbia and Cornell may be favored in one more game the rest of the way. They'd need to consistently pull upsets to even stay in the race - a split this weekend is enough to stay alive, per se, but realistically, it's over.
Dartmouth could easily sweep this weekend to get to 3-3, but with just two home games left, it's hard to see Dartmouth going 4-4 or even 3-5 to build on that to get to 7-7 or 6-8. And if the Big Green splits this weekend or worse, it's definitely over with the slate Dartmouth has left.
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