mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-24-19 05:46 PM - Post#277854
In response to rbg
Here's where I have things heading out of the weekend:
Harvard and Yale haven't clinched, but both are in the "statistically" clinched range. Yale would have to lose out, have Brown beat Cornell, have Cornell win out otherwise AND have Harvard stay ahead of Princeton. So, Yale is in.
Harvard has more disaster scenarios to consider, but as long as Yale is the top seed, the only tiebreaker Harvard can lose is to Cornell. That would mean that either both of Brown and Penn would have to get to 8-6 (possible, but they'd have to have Penn beat Brown and those two teams win every other game they play) OR one of Brown and Penn would have to get to 8-6 with Cornell at 7-7 (more possible). Harvard's only 1% to lose out, so the 8-6 scenarios are more realistic, and those would require Brown beating Cornell AND Cornell winning out otherwise. So, Harvard is in.
Princeton is in a weird zone. Basically clinched, but with a non-zero chance (7%) of losing out. It would have two of the three important tiebreakers (Cornell and Penn), so it would have to get passed by one of those teams plus matched by Brown to miss out. So, Princeton is *essentially* in (but check back in if it gets swept and Cornell or Penn sweeps).
The battle for fourth is where things get really interesting.
Brown is in the best shape, but that's heavily dependent on this weekend's schedule. In other words, Brown needs to hold serve this weekend and have other expected outcomes occur (Cornell loses at Yale and Penn loses at Harvard) to feel good about its chances. Exiting the weekend even a game up on Penn or Cornell is not a good situation for Brown, because Penn could grab the tiebreaker with a win the next weekend or Cornell could have the tiebreaker with a win over Yale. The odds vary by outcome, but anything less than Brown sweeping this weekend and being up two games with two to play would likely flip the odds to Cornell or Penn.
Cornell just needs to split either way this weekend to be in good shape. A win against Yale would secure the tiebreak with Brown even with a loss on Saturday, and a win on Saturday would secure the tiebreak just the same AND do a little damage to a direct competitor.
Finally, Penn can only watch and take care of business. The odd thing is that it probably doesn't need the Harvard win to have a chance. Unless Cornell wins at Yale, beating Harvard pretty much becomes irrelevant for the best win tiebreaker (obviously an extra win in the standings is helpful in and of itself). The main competitors (Brown and Cornell) have a Harvard win and Penn doesn't have a Princeton win to back it up, so what it really needs to win the tiebreakers is a win over Yale (best win tiebreak) and a win over Brown (head-to-head). If it gets those and a win over Dartmouth, really all it needs is a Yale sweep this weekend, and it'll probably have enough to get in at 7-7 regardless of the Harvard result.
My odds at present for the Ivy Tourney say:
Yale 99.9%
Harvard 99.6%
Princeton 97%
Brown 60%
Penn 25%
Cornell 19%
Dartmouth ~0%
Columbia ~0%
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