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Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



Username Post: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
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Professor
Posts: 8331
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Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
03-13-19 04:21 PM - Post#281099    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

  • T.P.F.K.A.D.W. Said:
  • mrjames Said:
My guess would be that the Harvard-Penn line might skew a bit toward Harvard (maybe to a PK open) because in these types of situations, they try to move off the true line to make up for the fact that the general betting public might see "better seed an underdog to worse seed" and money might come in unevenly at true odds. And while Vegas usually tries to give the fair line because that's what's most likely to make the money fall evenly (what they want), in situations where they know things will be perceived a certain way, they shade that way to try to get that money to fall evenly.

But Penn is, indeed, a -1.5 or so favorite here.


So if I understand you correctly, Penn "should" be more of a -2.5 point favorite?



I think once the public sees a lower seed that already has two losses to the higher seed open as a favorite, you will see the line go to PK, at least for a while. I would wait for that before taking them.

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