mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-23-19 03:39 PM - Post#283902
In response to PennFan10
It's more than 5%.
Yale was 72% to win at Bart in 2019 and Penn was 69% in 2018. If you strip away HCA, those would fall by somewhere in the 12ish percentage point range (60% and 57%, respectively).
The percentage likelihood that Harvard loses both under the HCA scenario is 72% * 69% = 50%.
Under the no HCA scenario, the likelihood that Harvard loses both is 60% * 57% = 34%.
That's a sizeable swing in the odds of this class having made a tourney due to location alone. I'm not really sure why this is such a controversial statement.
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