mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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06-18-20 01:39 PM - Post#309212
In response to SomeGuy
Here is why:
1. Harvard has been in the 80s in SOR the past two seasons. We've documented on here before why some teams overperform their KenPom ratings in their W-L record, and Harvard does that far more often than not. While I think KenPom generally is a better metric than Ws-Ls, every model comes with assumptions, and when behavior violates one model's assumptions, sometimes the inferior model can become a better measure for a team.
2. Harvard lost two years of two different Ivy POY-caliber players. While that "result is the result," Harvard has continued to recruit at that level, so you'd assume that if injury luck ever benefits Harvard, it will see the results it should have seen with four years of both players.
3. Harvard has incredible depth which reduces the stress on any one position to perform. That reduces variance, specifically related to downside risk, which is why I see Harvard's floor as a lot higher than Penn's. While I don't see Penn as that far behind Harvard if everything works out for it heading into next season, if things (namely the interior situation) don't work out, Penn is in big trouble. And that issue seems consistent over time, which is why I see where Harvard has been over the past five seasons as a relative bottom and where Penn has been as a relative ceiling.
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