JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-14-24 12:36 PM - Post#361651
In response to JDP
Week 2
Games went according to expectation for Ws & Ls.
• Princeton’s 23 point margin of victory at Harvard, was impressive as the models suggested a pickem. The Tigers have started the Ivy season much better than their early December stretch where the results were much closer
• Brown & Penn both got road wins in trap games … The Bears built a nice lead early and hung on … The Quakers struggled early, but played a good second half … any road win as a good win.
NCAA (68) at large: Princeton at a 41 NET is still likely on bubble given ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 46 NET
WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton – current projected bubble 90 NET
WNIT (48): Brown – current projected bubble 145 NET – expect to increase to high 160s as high NET teams with losing records increases
The win expectations generally remain the same with the exception of Princeton improving by a half game – reflecting their very good start – but games favored remain the same … At this projection point, and applying Ivy Tiebreakers, Brown is the 4th seed having a better NET than Penn – even thought both are projected at 7-7.
Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.4 13
Columbia 11.5 13
Harvard 10.0 10
Brown 6.6 7
Penn 6.4 7
Yale 3.9 3
Cornell 3.8 3
Dartmouth 1.4 0
The NET movement was more interesting in the relative movements – especially from the implications of what teams can do to improve their NET during conference play:
Penn improved by 7 with a 14 point win over Dartmouth (expectation was 8)
Brown improved by 5 with a 5 point win over Yale (expectation was 1)
Princeton improved by 2 with a 23 point win over Harvard (expectation was pickem) = the Crimson only dropped 2 spots – showing how hard it is to improve in the top 40, even when you beat a top 100 team, and that you do not fall that much either
Ivies are still 11th best conference by NET
School NET GoG (- good)
Princeton 41 -2
Columbia 70 -1
Harvard 80 2
Brown 137 -5
Penn 186 -7
Cornell 244 3
Yale 252 5
Dartmouth 328 -1
Overall 167 -1
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