UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1122
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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02-18-24 09:05 PM - Post#363487
In response to Streamers
I have completed an analysis of the last three eras of Penn BB, starting with the KP data from 1999, the farthest back that data goes. Here are the facts and some opinions.
First, the Dunphy era was waaaaaaaay better than Donahue’s tenure, 76 ranking points better on average. Franny’s worst year was only 18 ranking points worse than Steve’s average year. I suspect the average will be 60 or more points better than this year once the final wreckage is complete.
The big difference is on defense, 103 points better. Offense is 41 points better. Interestingly, it is only 12 points better than Steve’s second phase (post AJ). Dumph’s worst defense year is 150 points better than Steve worst.
Steves second phase has been better on offense by 49 points over his first phase. But the defense has slipped by 155 points. Steve has apparently reverted to his history of favoring offensive over defense at the cost of victories. For instance, Phase two has averaged a rank of 136 on 3% shooting on offense and 218 on defense.
Other second phase notables are a rank of 334 on defense turnovers and 293 on three attempts (Mike James’ favorite stat).
The current team is of course worse on every stat but defensive rebounding. Notably they rank 308 on foul shooting, 330 on turnover defense, and 302 on surrendered assists.
While it is clear Clark’s injury has hurt the offensive ranks this year, the defense should not have been affected.
So, with Clark’s departure we are at a position where major recruiting help will be required to regain any hope of squeaking into Ivy Madness next year, probably in two years. Since when do Frosh turn a program around? It will require two years of good recruiting for the promising Freshmen on this team to have a shot at real contention. Unless, of course, next year’s class includes an AJ and a Ryan Betley. They turned the Allen mess into a championship in two years, albeit against a league without its usual sub 100 program.
Maybe I should just resurrect one of my posts from 2015. Here we are 10 years later in the same leaky boat.
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