whitakk 
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 33
Reg: 11-11-14
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02-19-24 09:35 PM - Post#363590
In response to Bryan
It’s the Quad nonsense. He’s just predicting what the committee will do, and he’s right.
They are currently ranked 66 in KenPom which has no bias for Big Conference versus Small Conference teams. If Princeton needs an at large bid to make the NCAA tournament then they will lose at least one more game --> in that case their Pomeroy rating will be worse than 66.
Factually this is wrong - KP currently projects Princeton to finish 11-3, so in expectation going 12-2 would increase their rating, probably by significantly more than losing a 60-40 game in the tournament (specifics would depend on margins of course).
I mostly agree with your general point - that finishing in the late 50s to high 60s is a bubble-worthy team but by no means one that's an injustice to leave out. I would especially agree with it if the committee consistently used a Kenpom-like ranking to select the field, which would be a better system than the arbitrary one we have now.
The best system, and the metrics-based case for Princeton, is to use Strength of Record or Wins Against Bubble (Princeton is ~35 in each and would probably be around 40 with winning out until a conference tourney loss). These measure how many games a team won against their schedule, compared to what another good team would have done, using the whole schedule and metrics that actually assess team quality - a real metric of a team's resume, and one that makes the results of every game matter.
Instead the committee is scared of metrics and only trusts numbers they can count on one hand, which is how we get the "Quad 1/2 wins" crap that disadvantages mid-majors.
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