JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-25-24 11:27 AM - Post#363969
In response to rbg
Three very exciting finishes bring us to the last three games of the season:
#1 Seed: Princeton
Most likely will be decided on NCAA Net as Columbia has a 75% chance of winning out and Princeton has an 80% chance. The Tigers NET fell to 29 after the loss and the Lions remained flat to 61.
Assuming Princeton wins out in the regular season, an at large bid should happen if the Tigers fall in Ivy Madness.
Columbia is rooting for Harvard, Dartmouth and or Penn!
#2/3 Seed: Columbia & Harvard
Most likely outcome – both teams are likely to make the WBIT if they do not win Ivy Madness
#4 Seed:
8-6: Brown is the front runner as they have a 5% chance to get to 8 wins, Penn has only a 1% chance to get to 8 wins. If both teams finish 8-6, Penn goes to Ivy Madness by virtue of wins over Princeton and Harvard.
7-7:
Brown is hoping the 65%+ probability that no one else gets to 7-7 holds, if someone else does, that team will have a better tie breaking win that the Bears, and that team (Penn or Yale) will go to Ivy Madness
Penn has about a 30% chance of reaching 7-7 – Wins at home over Dartmouth & Harvard are the best chance. But if the Bears lose to the Lions, the Quakers will have two opportunities (Harvard & Princeton) to reach 7-7 and go to Ivy Madness on tiebreakers.
Yale has about a 2% chance or reaching 7-7 – they need a sweep, which includes Columbia and Brown. In this Scenario, the Eli likely would go to Ivy Madness, unless Penn gets to 7-7 by beating Princeton (who should still be the #1 seed in that scenario)
6-8 / 5-9:
Still in play – would come down to who has the better NET between Brown, Penn or Yale
WNIT cutline is 172-177 range. Brown on WNIT bubble, but likely in. Penn on WNIT bubble.
School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 165 -1
Columbia 61 -2
Cornell 263 6
Dartmouth 327 15
Harvard 87 1
Penn 173 -4
Princeton 29 2
Yale 246 -13
Overall 169 1
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