Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1903
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-27-24 07:15 PM - Post#366620
In response to CM
CM, I don't know your background around basketball, but if you're right about NIL counting against financial aid substantially, then it does sound logical that scholarships are the first step.
The first problem is that I think the Ivies would be more opposed to scholarships than NIL. Scholarships need to be funded by the endowment or by the budget. NIL can exist outside of that if funded by alumni. Also, the school doesn't give scholarships for being a first chair tuba player in the orchestra. The administration would probably find it more symmetrical to allow athletes to make money from their individual work in the sport, just as tuba players can earn all the money they want from teaching, working at summer camps, or even taking endorsements.
The second factor is that the pool of NIL would eventually need to cover more than tuition and board. For good college athletes, they can now probably earn as much in college as they can in Europe. Scholarships probably wouldn't be able to index to the real total compensation of college athletes, whereas NIL could.
I think going to DII or DIII, whether real or defacto is more likely. As someone else mentioned, not many schools can really make money off of basketball. A sound business model around NCAA basketball will need to include robust revenue from conference TV money, NCAA Tournament money, merchandise, and tickets to justify the spend. I could imagine the Ivies becoming more competitive if they paid the players adequately, but it would take longer for the revenue to follow. The conference won't be yielding big TV contracts or NCAA appearance fees anytime soon. Merchandise sales would take years to build as the teams got better. Also, the Ivies that are later to spend would actually be more profitable in the short term. They would get their share of the NCAA pool money, regardless of their team's performance.
So if you were Donahue, Earl, Henderson, etc. how do you build a business plan for the AD and the school president? Remember that the school leaders care more about the academic standing, the money from research and the hospital, the endowment, and generally avoiding conflict/scandal at the school. Sports are pretty distant in the priorities...
I think the conference as a whole would need to take a plan to a sports network that they will spend $X on building their sports programs for a TV contract of $Y. That way, they could keep revenue and costs proportionate as they build.
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