mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-01-16 04:24 PM - Post#203085
In response to puband09
So, I've written extensively about this and recorded a podcast episode about it (Episode 3, I believe).
I'm not going to rehash it all here, but essentially there is far more to fear in a deep class than a shallow class with one headliner. And the model shows that. The last Harvard class that was ranked first in the Ivies in terms of expected win shares was the 2012 class of Siyani, Evan, Agunwa, Steeves and Mike Hall. Since then, Harvard's 2013, 2014 and 2015 classes were all middle of the pack, even though the Crimson did have the clear, best recruit according to the rankings in the 2013 and 2014 classes.
The model identifies these as Tommy's highest rated recruiting classes (also the highest four rated classes in the Ivy League since 2002):
1. Harvard 2016 60 Pred/(TBD Actual)
2. Harvard 2011 40 Pred/55 Actual
3. Harvard 2009 35 Pred/43 Actual
4. Harvard 2012 33 Pred/20 Actual (TBD final)
With 7 WS from Agunwa, Evan and Steeves this year and a solid year from Siyani next season, that 2012 class should finish around where it was predicted to finish and the other two highly rated classes overachieved their lofty targets.
And yet the 2016 class is expected to be about as good as the 2011 class actually was (technically that 2011 class is still racking up WS due to Corbin Miller still adding to that class).
I'll say this again, one of the most underreported aspects of Ivy hoops over the past three years has been how the assistant coaching turnover and some REALLY bad luck with admissions and fin aid had decimated Harvard's normally strong recruiting.
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