mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-16 05:33 PM - Post#204458
In response to besnoah
Using my win share projection model (which I think I've shown on these boards before), in the seasons during the Allen era, I would have had Penn at the following rank by year (by expected win shares):
2015 (current freshmen): T-3
2014: 2
2013: 1
2012: 3
2011: 2
2010: T-2
Now, Penn has an extraordinary run of bad luck with many of those classes. They took some guys who were evaluated highly before being injured in HS, had some high major programs back off and never panned out in college. They've had some transfers. They've had some injuries.
Add it all up, and if I were to include dummy variables for teams, Penn would be the only one with a statistically significant negative variable, meaning that it just characteristically underperformed the model over the selected time frame.
I guess from that you might both be right. Penn still has recruited pretty well in terms of getting players it wants, but it's had bad luck/poor evals on those players leading to general underperformance.
I've been debating how to put a qualitative view on what I'm seeing on the recruiting landscape. Harvard clearly gets who it wants. It loses very few recruiting battles in the league when it can provide an immediate offer along with other Ivy competition. Beyond that, there's a clear rung of Yale, Penn, Princeton, which frequently are pursuing different targets, but seem to land a relatively equal share of common targets. Beyond that, if I had to gamble on a staff that could steal a kid from another Ivy, I'd probably go with Dartmouth and Brown.
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