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Username Post: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
08-19-16 02:11 PM - Post#209752    

Figured I'd get the conversation going before we find out which handful of All-Ivy caliber folks are going to miss the season and render all of these projections moot.

For me, the era of doing the detailed projections is over, but I do have a simple, top-level model that can help provide a directional understanding. The top-level model uses past trends in ORAT and DRAT by league and team along with the continuity of the roster year-over-year to drive to separate offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.

Team Conf ORAT DRAT Pytha g ImpRankNatl
Brown Ivy 100.2 107.8 0.322 243
Columbia Ivy 105.3 106.8 0.464 173
Cornell Ivy 101.6 105.6 0.403 196
Dartmouth Ivy 99.9 104.8 0.380 206
Harvard Ivy 105.4 98.2 0.673 97
Penn Ivy 100.5 105.5 0.379 206
Princeton Ivy 113.0 100.0 0.778 52
Yale Ivy 104.3 99.6 0.617 115

These are really only starting points, best fit to those teams that have had pretty normal year-over-year transitions. I feel pretty good about teams like Princeton, Dartmouth, Cornell, Columbia and Brown, but Harvard, Penn and Yale might be tougher to nail down exactly, as each of those schools have brought in better than the usual non-BCS options to fill holes.

Regardless this is a decent starting point, which would suggest that our first Ivy tournament will likely involve a Harvard-Yale first round game and Princeton versus pretty much any of those other teams. It also predicts that we'll have our first average Pythag over .5000 as a league, which would put us in contention to sneak out of the teens into 11th or 12th.
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