mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
11-10-16 05:21 PM - Post#212904
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
Just adjusting the continuity-based model for Makai's absence, I've now got Yale really close to where Columbia was (though I have Columbia lower now too due to Castlin).
Team Conf ORAT DRAT Pytha g ImpRank
Brown Ivy 100.2 107.8 0.322 243
Columbia Ivy 103.6 107.6 0.403 196
Cornell Ivy 101.0 105.9 0.383 205
Dartmouth Ivy 99.9 104.8 0.380 206
Harvard Ivy 106.0 97.9 0.692 89
Penn Ivy 100.5 105.5 0.379 206
Princeton Ivy 113.0 100.0 0.778 52
Yale Ivy 100.3 101.5 0.469 170
Frankly, though anything from 3-7 looks pretty murky and really a reasonable miss from this top-level model could have a team like Brown ending up 3rd best.
The good news for Yale is that a reasonable comp (Cornell 2010) lost about the same number of minutes/key players from the same starting point and stayed in the Top 200. And that's a team that was better offensively than defensively. Offense is more dependent on continuity than defense, so you'd expect a more defensively-oriented squad like Yale to fall a bit less with the same amount of turnover. In other words, I think Yale will now fall to the pack, but will probably have the highest floor of any of the teams down there.
|
