mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-04-17 12:01 PM - Post#217312
In response to SomeGuy
I am a little more pessimistic on Princeton than Pomeroy is (primarily because I take a less preseason-weighted view on teams that have changed from the preseason). I have Yale as marginally outperforming Princeton thus far and both of those two marginally ahead of Penn and Harvard (though Harvard's December run is better than any stretch any Ivy has put together thus far).
While each of the current Top 4 teams has a 90 percent or higher chance of making the Ivy tourney, it's important to note that the odds that all four make it are closer to 75%. The most likely to bust the party is Columbia, though Brown and Cornell are at nearly 10% and Dartmouth (playing like it has recently) should be in that neighborhood as well.
It is also very unlikely that all four of the Top 4 will get a clean break from the bottom four. There should be some semblance of a race deep into the season even if those Top 4 are all prohibitive favorites to be the qualifiers for the tourney. Yale has 5-of-6 on the road to start, so it's either going to be in great position for the 1-seed OR playing significant catch up at home down the stretch. Harvard has a similar, but less acute problem, with 5-of-8 on the road to start and the toughest pairing in the league (Penn/Princeton) as its only home weekend.
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