mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-16-17 04:33 PM - Post#218524
In response to dperry
For Penn, seven is a little better than 50/50 and that's when I'm just randomizing ties.
I haven't programmed in the tiebreaker rules, though I do know that Penn is going to win the third tiebreaker (ratings) if it gets there. RPI, Sagarin, KenPom, BPI are all considered and unless BPI is wildly out of sync with Sagarin and KenPom, Penn should only lose that tiebreaker to Columbia if Columbia is wildly unlucky at arriving at the same Ivy record as Penn (i.e. Columbia has a huge +MOV and Penn has a huge -MOV and both finish with the same record).
Now, before I give Penn the huge tiebreaker advantage, it's worth noting that if the Quakers lose at Brown, they'll lose the first tiebreaker (H2H) if they end up in a tie with the Bears. That being said, it's not all that much of a stretch that, if two teams end up tied for fourth, it'll come down to that ratings tiebreaker. Last year, if Harvard hadn't beaten Princeton and thus finished tied for 4th at 5-9 with Penn, the ratings tiebreaker would have been the deciding factor.
Also, it's important to note that how many wins it'll take for fourth depends on how good you think Harvard is. If Harvard is good enough to, like last year (or 2010), be a third team nabbing double-digit Ivy wins and the bottom of the league isn't awful, there are going to be a lot of teams sitting in that 4-6 win bin, meaning that 6-8 could get it done.
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