mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-21-17 12:31 PM - Post#222853
In response to bradley
I was responding to this:
Historically, big difference as to the success of teams between #12/13 vs. #15/16. Ivy League's reputation has been enhanced based on their recent performance at the Big Dance; certainly not their non-conference performance. Why at the NCAA tournament? Very good teams have represented the IL in recent years.
This implies (or sort of explicitly states) that any team other than the 1-seed representing the league would have impacted our recent tourney performance adversely because they would be, presumably, lower seeded. Yet in 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2016 - all years in which we won or lost at the buzzer in our R64 game - we had two teams that would have been basically the same seed.
And when you look at the odds that *both* of those teams would have failed to win the bid, it's a very long shot. So, you can go ahead and fearmonger about the "what if" of a 4th place Dartmouth team winning in 2015, but Harvard and Yale would win that bid like 90+% of the time.
I don't like the 4th seed having home court. Hopefully that's clear. It will distort the odds of the best team(s) winning. But absent that HCA issue, there's a long track record of people's fears about the quality drop from the 1-seed down being comically overblown.
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