Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 6997
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-06-17 03:20 PM - Post#225261
In response to SRP
I tend to overrate lightening-fast PGs so perhaps my concern about Goodman is unwarranted, but Penn has generally looked better when fast-breaking, so Goodman could have some effect there. My older concerns about half-court blow-bys have diminished as the Tigers have improved a lot at on-ball defense.
I'd focus on the fast break part of this - Penn is going to need a fair share of cheap baskets in transition to have a shot at the upset because the quality of Princeton's D in the half court is going to make it hard to score efficiently there.
Since Princeton rarely turns the ball over, adding Goodman and his 2.7 steal % to that of Howard and Betley increases the odds that they can get the Tigers above their season average and create scoring opportunities before the Princeton D can rotate back, while keeping their own TOs at a minimum. Penn only forced 10 and 12 T0s in the first two matchups without Goodman, good for 15.7 and 21.1% of PU possessions on offense, and compounded that by turning it over at 23 and 24% themselves.
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