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Username Post: Looking ahead
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
03-10-17 10:59 AM - Post#226044    
    In response to Columbia Alum

I don't think Columbia started the season playing as a KenPom 200 team. That preseason rating is all based on the prior year. In Columbia's case, with so many minutes leaving, where they are is a prediction based on the standard replacement level of players in our league -- the system has no idea whether the replacements are actually at the standard level, etc. The preseason rating slowly becomes a smaller part of the calculation as the season progresses. So the dropping rating isn't a function of Columbia playing worse -- it's a function of the high initial guess slowly being removed.
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