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Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



Username Post: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-20-17 11:46 AM - Post#227781    
    In response to mrjames

Worth a bump on this.

Here's what my continuity model said going into the year:

Team Conf ORAT DRAT Pytha g ImpRank
Brown Ivy 100.2 107.8 0.322 243
Columbia Ivy 103.6 107.6 0.403 196
Cornell Ivy 101.0 105.9 0.383 205
Dartmouth Ivy 99.9 104.8 0.380 206
Harvard Ivy 106.0 97.9 0.692 89
Penn Ivy 100.5 105.5 0.379 206
Princeton Ivy 113.0 100.0 0.778 52
Yale Ivy 100.3 101.5 0.469 170

From an efficiency margin perspective (since that's how KP judges things now), here's the expected efficiency margin from above and then the actual:

Team Expected / Actual
Brown (7.55) / (9.86)
Columbia (4.03) / (6.27)
Cornell (4.83) / (8.72)
Dartmouth (4.91) / (12.96)
Harvard 8.03 / 4.75
Penn (4.96) / (0.21)
Princeton 13.01 / 12.59
Yale (1.22) / 1.00

All in all, it's not a bad first blush estimator. The biggest misses were Dartmouth (overpredicted) and Penn (underpredicted) but every other team finished within 4 pts/100 poss of the expected Efficiency Margin.

In the future, I'd probably add a frosh mins expectation based on how strong frosh contributions can overcome the need for more continuity (I plugged Harvard's continuity to account for the frosh - and slightly over projected - because without it, Harvard would have been near 200, which didn't seem right).

It's a good first approximation though.
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