mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-22-17 07:53 AM - Post#227876
In response to Bryan
You're thinking about it correctly.
Some of it is the players coming in - in the absence of a proper freshman weighting system, I do not penalize fully in continuity minutes that I believe have a logical replacement, either internally or from freshmen. So, for instance, the loss of Cook and Weisz are huge, but with Desrosiers, Schweiger and Much coming in, plus the possibility of Bell to take on more minutes, I don't penalize Princeton for all of the continuity loss there.
Also working in Princeton's favor is that continuity seems to have less effect on defense than offense (at least in the absence of wholesale lineup changes). Given that the Tigers were better defensively than offensively last year, the loss of players won't hit them as hard as if they were an offensive juggernaut with okay defense.
These numbers are just for fun for now. Once I get good intel on how the holes are being plugged, I can get to a better continuity model that will probably be more accurate. Since Ken and Bart Torvik have been teasing theirs, I figured I'd provide mine as well!
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