03-22-17 11:10 AM - Post#227890 In response to Bryan
Thanks for the additional explanation. Another question, this about normal year-to-year improvement. If a team had all players returning from the prior year roughly how much of an increase in PPG (or Pomeroy points) would be expected? Does it matter if the team was good or bad? Does it matter if the team had mainly freshmen, sophomore or juniors in the earlier season?
Penn has everyone in their rotation returning except for Howard and appears to have a likely replacement for him in Simmons. Harvard loses an all-Ivy player in Chambers and another good player in Z but also had 5 freshmen in their rotation. Based on your projected Pomeroy gain of about 5.3 for Harvard and 2.5 for Penn I'd guess that your model projects larger improvements between freshman and sophomore years than for later years.