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UPIA1968 
PhD Student
Posts: 1116
UPIA1968
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
08-10-17 12:19 AM - Post#231757    
    In response to 91Quake

Please keep in mind that there is only one basketball and only enough room on the court for two or three players from the foul line in. That means a pair of stars plus four or five role players puts you in contention (Ibby Zoller). Having three people who can pressure a defense makes you the odds on champion (Begley, Ibby, Zollar)

So that tells us this about Penn's chances next year. Brodeur is the real thing. If Betley plays all year like he did at the end of last year, Penn has two players the opponents will have to base a defense around. That should be enough to improve, but not enough to stay with any of the HYP's who might find that third star. That means Penn will need the low probability event that one of the Freshmen is an instant star to stay with any of the HYP's who find that third player. It's possible, as Brodeur and maybe Betley proved last year, but not likely. If it happens, Steve merely has to find three or four role players. If Simmons is the pearl, all steve has to do is find a dependable point guard from four candidates and a stand still shooter from another four candidates. Throw in two more solid role players and you have a legitimate contender. Remember that no matter how good Harvard's four sophs are, only three at a time will get the ball routinely. True, their numbers make it more likely that Amaker will find his three stars. But if any one of the three Penn heralded recruits turns out, and Betley continues his progress, Penn is there.

Here's the point about recruiting I am trying to make. All deep recruiting does is to increase the odds of finding the two or three lead players one needs to get into real contention. Franny's genius was his ability to find and develop those three stars while surrounding them with good role players like Lengle, Owens, et. al. The only reason we need worry about 2019 recruits now is if Betley regresses and the 2018 class disappoints. Two good recruiting years is enough for any era.

Remember the great UCLA Run when Wooden invented 'over recruiting'. Those championships depended on six great classes over the twelve years. There was the Goodrich class, the Jabbar class, the Sidney Wicks class, the Walton Class and the Greenwood Class. All the other high school all americans that Wooden recruited ended up as role players. In the same way Franny's fourteen-year run featured the Allen, Jordan, U, Begley and Ibby classes.

When Mike James says it's a new league, he is merely saying that the quality of the top three has to be better and it may take more good recruits to find those diamonds in the rough. If, however, Steve has found another diamond in his backyard this year, it should be enough to fuel an extended title run. Yeah, getting below 100 rank will take three or four things to go well, unlikely this year, but if one of the three nuggets does sparkle, Penn's CURRENT recruiting is enough.

I am so tired reading here about Penn's systematic inadequacy in recruiting, when clearly the cause of the current, about to end, bad era was an abject management failure. Last November my son and I happily sang the Red and Blue during the football championship celebration in Ithaca. It is something we have done several times among the nineteen football championships, with 17 championships in the last 34 years. Even me, a typical intellectually handicapped Penn grad (same year as The Donald) can figure that is HALF of the total titles since Penn found the secret sauce under Bernt. The best of the HYP's has 17 total and 12 since 1982. What systematic recruiting advantage? Oh and why does it not apply to the women's programs too. Yeah, they did oops big time at the end, BUT IT WAS IN THE DANCE.

Let's focus our attention on how the young men and women who matriculate play on the hardwood in November. I'll say it again. If Matt makes those free throws, Penn would have beaten each of the HYP's last year and would have been one just more good effort from the Dance. Sure, I would love to see a couple of 2.5's or 3.0's sign up for 2019. But I am much more concerned that the 3-shooting improves , the rebounding improves and we find a point guard who can run the team in the last three minutes of a close game THIS YEAR!. All of those wishes are within this talent's capabilities. Let's get to 9-5 in the Ivies and a third seed in the Ivy tournament. If Harvard runs the table and waltzes through the tournament, okay, Amaker hit the jackpot like Franny did with his three NBA guards in 93 and 94 or Steve did in the years of the blue snow in Ithaca. Two or three losses is more likely for the winner this year and at least one close game in the tournament. Two or three Penn stars will be enough to keep us interested into March. And boy or boy is that better than what we have suffered through recently. This glass is more than half full. Hallelujah!
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