PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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08-10-17 01:53 PM - Post#231812
In response to mrjames
The 5 game number was quite the same, though. If we were to believe that the 8-game number is representative of Penn finding itself, you'd want it to be relatively consistent for the remainder of the season. It's not. It's comprised of three shellackings where Penn played like No. 39 followed by five up and down games that, in totality, were No. 209.
The point is that there's no evidence that Penn consistently "improved" down the stretch. All I'm saying is that I've been doing this a long time, and I'd need to feel very, very good about multiple freshmen to even think about getting Penn close to the Top 100.
Mr James, your "I've been doing this a long time" statement doesn't make sense to me unless you are worried about your credibility, which in my view is unquestioned. It does appear to me that you are blurring the lines between the facts and your opinion, at least a little.
You seem to be equating IL success with KenPom ranking (e.g top 100). Last year's IL Tourney teams were KP 58, 112, 151, and 171 by my count. While the overall record of KP 58 and 112 were much better than Penn the facts are that the goal is to be one of 4 teams in the conference tournament. Last years' KP 171 was 2 FT's away from beating KP 58 for a rematch with KP 151 whom they had defeated by double digits in New Haven just a couple weeks earlier. That doesn't seem like Penn is a "long, long, long" way away or not even "... in the conversation". From my perspective they out performed last year and competed with all 3 of the top teams.
And the predictive capabilities of your models notwithstanding, you get a lot of credit on Harvard last year (you picked them second in the IL-"performed") when most everyone was caught up in the hype of the frosh class, but you were wrong on Penn (I believe you picked them 7th, behind Cornell, Dartmouth and Columbia and they definitely outperformed) though you will likely say it was within the margin of error.
With Penn bringing in the most talented freshman class of the IL and returning most of the their minutes from a year ago, I don't see the rationale for them being so far away from the pack, with or without Freshman contribution. I do think Jelani and/or Jarrod will be significant contributors this year though which may make all of this moot.
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