SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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08-24-17 01:16 AM - Post#232353
In response to Columbia 37P6
Competing for the top (as in winning the regula season) seems nearly impossible to me. Columbia was 235 in Pomeroy last year. If Harvard simply stays the same (and they seem more likely to jump forward than Columbia), it's just a huge leap to get there (112 in kenpom). Princeton should come back to the field some, but they were 58 last year -- again a massive distance. You are correct to focus on freshmen in predicting they can win the league, because the numbers don't really add up to win the league with the existing players. Petrasek had a good ORAT while eating possessions, and those possessions would seem to undoubtedly come from less efficient players next year. Improvements can cover some of that, but a number of guys will need tomprove quite a bit just to get you back to 235.
Competing for the tournament is another matter. 235 Columbia was right with 171 Penn last year for the 4th spot. And once you get in the tournament, it becomes a 2 game season where anything can happen. To me, that's the path for Columbia.
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