mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-31-17 08:00 PM - Post#235197
In response to SomeGuy
So, I've gone back and forth with the SI guys (more before Luke went to the Raptors). The two key areas where their predictions suffer are in assessing mid-major impact talent (normally new) and in measuring defense.
They assess talent on an individual level for newcomers, and they find (accurately), that you only feel comfortable predicting that a newcomer will have an impact when they are Top 100 and only a major one in the Top 25 or 50. A lot of that, though, has less to do with the likelihood that a frosh will produce and more to do with the fact that at the high-major level, it takes that level of recruit to displace kids a high-major program already has from the start.
If they did it on the collective level for mids, what they'd find is that while you might not be able to project individual contributors, you can predict the output of a frosh group with some level of accuracy beyond just individuals from the Top 100.
Princeton is going to be very good this year. Some of that is because it didn't lose nearly as much as it seems. Weisz's actual output was not up to his normal standards (a low 100s ORAT on just over 20% usage shouldn't be too hard for Princeton to replace). Cook was an amazing player, no doubt - and those are the possessions we need to focus on. I have a lot of faith in the class Princeton brought in to be able to eat possessions efficiently.
I have questions about both Harvard and Yale, though oddly my questions aren't the ones that others seem to have. Siyani/Harvard isn't a problem. Neither is Yale's starting frontcourt. I am worried that Harvard won't be able to figure out the 4-spot and 5 rotation and that Yale's bench is weak.
I am appreciative that the bottom teams in the league scheduled like garbage to potentially inflate their W/L to boost the top teams' RPIs. Harvard, Princeton and Yale can all be Top 75 RPI teams, and the league's at large chances would get a huge boost if they all are.
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