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Username Post: '17 '18 Ivy Pre-Season Predictions
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-02-17 11:02 AM - Post#235320    
    In response to palestra38

It's important to look at the production lost, not the names lost.

Both of Henry Caruso and Hans Brase were lost within the first month of the season, and after losing them, Princeton was 53rd nationally over its final 22 games, versus 141st in its first 7 (D1) games that Caruso, and to a lesser extent Brase, played.

Thus, you can throw Caruso and Brase out. 22 games is a pretty substantial sample and the improvement was steady (46th over the final 18 games, 43rd over the final 12 games, 43rd over the final 6 games, 39th over the 5 games in March).

That leaves Cook and Weisz, who actually did contribute to that team that was Top 50 down the stretch. Weisz was a very important player because of his defensive contributions when it came to stops (rebounds, steals, blocks). But his offensive numbers declined last year versus his junior year, which is more of the player that people think of when they think of Weisz. It's not that 101.5 ORAT guys on 21.5% usage grow on trees, but it's a lot different than replacing a 121.8 ORAT guy on 17% usage, which he was the year before.

Cook is a bit of a different story. Despite shooting well below his career average from 3 in Ivy play, he posted a 112 ORAT on 23% usage. He was insanely good at getting to the rim and finishing there (47% of shots, 59% make rate). And if you sagged off him, he could drill at three (which even at the depressed 35% in Ivy play was still efficient).

I don't think Cook is immediately replaceable, and that's why I don't have Princeton in the Top 50 like it was to end the season. That being said, I don't have them falling much.

I also don't think that getting someone to play upfront is as big of a deal as we're making it. Princeton's most frequently used lineup down the stretch was Bell, Cannady, Weisz, Cook, Stephens at about 25% of team possessions (nearly double the next most frequent lineup) and another 30% came from four of those 5 plus Will Gladson or Alec Brennan. So, Princeton has some familiar options: play five guards some and get Gladson and Brennan to split the remaining minutes at the 5. And that's before we see what guys like Much, Desrosiers and Schweiger can do.
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