cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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11-20-17 12:38 PM - Post#236996
The next two games against Army and Colgate are our only realistic opportunities to go more than 1-6 on the road to open the season. We're now down to 189 in KP, in a league of our own, 46 slots below Penn at 143, and 47 slots above Dartmouth at 236. To break out of this no man's land in the middle of the pack, we have to beat either Army (171 32% chance) or Colgate (175, 34%), both of whom are favored by 5 points.
So far, we have run 11 pt, 2 pts, and 3pts above projections: the 11 was with Castlin in the line, the last two without. Since game notes haven't been published yet, we don't know whether Castlin will be playing. But unlike the first 3 games, this one should be close. Win it, and KP which recently boosted its projection for Columbia to 7-7 in IL, could begin to turn the 4 IL games where we are now projected to lose by just 1 point into probable victories.
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