mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-04-18 02:29 PM - Post#242006
In response to bradley
In games where Bryce has played, the team is 97 ORAT (101 Adj), 98 DRAT with him on the floor and 78 ORAT (82 Adj), 96 DRAT with him off of it.
That Harvard has had a 91.5 Adj ORAT (and a similar Raw ORAT) in these four games without him has been a miracle. While I don't know that Bryce is worth 0.2ppp over his replacements in the long run, it's reasonable to think that 0.1ppp is possible. He's on the floor roughly 55-60 possessions a game, so that'd be about 5.5-6pts that he's worth over the course of a game or 8-8.5 pts per 100 team possessions.
I don't know that the offense will become a strength for Harvard this year, but the Crimson has posted a Top 6 defensive efficiency performance against 8 of the last 10 teams it's played. And it's doing all of it with average luck on opponent shots. If Harvard gets to a national average offense (very achievable with Bryce and average luck) and holds at a 97-98ish defense, playing like a +6 eff margin team (just inside Top 100 caliber) the rest of the way would leave this team right where it wants to be.
This year's team has had to deal with a shocking amount of injury/illness adversity, which means you have to dig a bit to parse out what can be expected at full strength. Now, it'd be entirely fair to say: I don't think Harvard's going to get to full strength, so I'm judging it as it is. That's a totally fair assumption to make.
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