mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-23-18 04:22 PM - Post#244474
In response to bradley
Yeah, the big Returning Player Mins modelers who project the upcoming season have done a ton of research into how Top 25/50/100/NR kids are likely to impact the team that season. One of the interesting things that we’ve gone back and forth about is that, as you found, the impact guys are Top 25, there’s some decent credit for Top 50 and very little for Top 100. And that works well for the power conf teams.
That being said... mids still tend to see big boosts from 51-100 kids (and really Top 150-200 kids) more frequently than the power conf teams. No one has incorporated this into their preseason models yet, but it’s a known phenomenon now. To some extent, why I agreed with the Top 10 ranking was that the kids in that class would be at Harvard for four years (versus teams getting Top 25 kids that leave school early) and over the four years they’d post a win share number worthy of a Top 10 class. But being one of the top 10 best classes that freshman year was unlikely (lower ranked teams with one-and-dones might have more impactful classes in that one year).
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