rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3052
Reg: 10-20-14
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01-24-18 10:15 AM - Post#244506
In response to mrjames
Luke Benz, President of the Yale Undergraduate Sports Analytics Group, has an article at the Yale Daily News regarding his club's predictions for this coming weekend, as well as the conference season.
https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2018/01/23/by-th e-n...
Looking at the article and the group's twitter feed, their simulations show the chances for each team to make the Ivy Tournament:
Princeton 98.0%
Penn 97.9%
Harvard 78.2%
Yale 53.8%
Brown 37.0%
Columbia 32.5%
Dartmouth 1.6%
Cornell 0.2%
Looking at Mike's twitter account, he has similar percentages:
Princeton 98%
Penn 97%
Harvard 77%
Yale 53%
Brown 36%
Columbia 34%
Dartmouth 3%
Cornell 3%
I was looking at the IL info on Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency at Ken Pomeroy's site and saw the following rankings:
Team AdjO AdjD
Prin #87 #175
Penn #246 #90
Harv #330 #46
Yale #151 #264
Brown #262 #194
Colum #210 #246
Corn #223 #320
Dart #244 #321
I have a couple questions for the much more educated analytic experts on the board based on the above information. (I apologize if my premise is completely off base.)
Looking at the IL simulations and the adjusted efficiency rankings, is it too naive to state:
A team needs at, or around, a top 100 ranking in at least one metric to feel strongly confident to be in this year's top 4?
Does a team need to have a performance in the area of Top 150 in at least one metric to be fairly certain of getting into this year's Tournament?
Since Brown's defense and Columbia's offense are closer to top 150, will an improvement in those metrics give them the best chance of taking the last spot over Yale (assuming Yale's offense doesn't take
a nose dive)? If so, how realistic is it that either team could improve that much?
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