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Username Post: Yale
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-05-18 09:37 AM - Post#246170    
    In response to palestra38

Wow, quite Trumpian... The good news is that we were specific in the Red & Blue thread that captured this argument. You wanted me to give you a reasonable estimate of what you might expect from Antonio. Here's what I said:

  • Quote:
I can take a crack at this.

At 30 mins, that's 75% of team mins. Assuming low-to-mid 20s in shot rate when on the floor, that means he's going to take about 17-18% of total team shots. Penn will probably take about 55-60 shots a game, so he'll take roughly 10 per game.

Using the splits we've seen historically, he'll take 2.5 as layups, 3.75 as 2PTJs and 3.75 as 3s. Let's say he makes upper 50s at the rim, upper 30s as 2PTJs and around 30 from three. That's 9 pts on 10 shots.

His FTRate has been pretty consistently at 30%, so tack on 3 free throws a game. We'll put him at his freshman year rate and that's another 2 pts. So, now he's at 11ppg.

He's going to be on the floor for about 43 shots a game and Penn will make about 19 of those. Of those, four will be his. So there are 15 made baskets upon which he could assist. Let's middle his assist rate and call it 25%. So, he's going to be at about 3.8 apg.

He'll be on the floor for 53 poss per game. Say his usage rate is in the low-to-mid 20s, that'll be about 12 poss per game. I'll middle his TO Rate to about 18%, so that's right around 2topg.

To me, that's an appropriate baseline. Those counting stats will increase/decrease based on playing time, usage/shot rates on court and conversion percentages. Playing time will be the biggest factor.



Your reply was:

  • Quote:
And those, roughly, correspond to his stats from his first 1.4 years.

I look for significant improvement.



Turns out, he's been slightly under those stats, primarily because he didn't turn out to be a 20+% usage, ball-dominant player, but rather has become an off-ball secondary option. That's the type of player he should have become given his offensive limitations, but a guy like that is far more common than the picture you painted of his potential performance.

If you look back at that entire thread, your stance here is pretty nuts.
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