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Username Post: Building realistic simulations
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-08-18 10:36 AM - Post#246896    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

SOS is pretty equal and will be very equal down the stretch (essentially only difference is Brown-Columbia swapping out and those two are very close in the rankings).

The crux of it is that Yale is a MUCH better team. The Bulldogs are not only favored over Cornell at home, they're also a 2-pt favorite in Ithaca. Then every weekend they have better odds than Cornell as well. Cornell is 9% to sweep the Ps at home, Yale is roughly 25% (key weekend for tiebreakers).

Very similar to why Penn last year still had decent odds at 0-5 and even at 0-6 still had better odds to make the Ivy tourney (7%) than 2-4 Cornell (3%), leading me to say this at the time:

Mike James
‏

@ivybball
5 Feb 2017
More Mike James Retweeted CornellSportsGameday
If Cornell wins, I'm not looking forward to having to explain how a 3-3 team has lower odds to make the Ivy tourney than an 0-5 team. Mike James added,
CornellSportsGameday

@CUBigRedGameday
MBKB I It's halftime and we're all tied at 36-36. Sophomore Stone Gettings with 16 points to lead the Big Red.
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