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Username Post: Building realistic simulations
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-08-18 12:02 PM - Post#246910    
    In response to penn nation

Happy to run the sims with overrides on the efficiency ratings that are more representative of how a team is playing now.

The current sims pull the objective rating from Bart Torvik's site, so I don't really have any control over how a team is rated. I do have manual overrides that I *can* throw in (and would, potentially, if Aiken or Mason ever came back fully healthy and as a consistent positive contributor). Otherwise, it's best to stick with the ratings as they exist in the objective world.

One thing I will say is that Princeton's odds would be lower if I were using KenPom versus Bart Torvik's site. KenPom's ratings get super jumpy when the preseason weighting falls off, whereas Bart's move more throughout the year, leading to them being relatively less jumpy at this point.

Thus, Princeton didn't take as much of a hit over the past couple games at Bart's site than at KenPom.
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