mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-13-18 04:36 PM - Post#247732
In response to PennFan10
No doubt - the point is not supposed to be at all surprising. Very intuitive. It’s more about the description of the game. If all I see is the final score, seeing the game script can be very useful context for understanding how the game went. I won’t know if a 10-point game was a tight one where a handful of free throws in the final minute pushed it from competitive to comfortable or if the game was healthy double-digits throughout but the losing team finished on a run in garbage time to close it to 10.
My hypothesis too (untested) is that the final stretch of the game can get unrepresentative of the normal course of the game. For instance, if a team down double-digits throughout hits a bunch of threes and gets the leading team to miss 1-and-1s and parts of double bonuses and miraculously comes all the way back, that may not be as useful a signal of that team’s true quality as the bulk of the game played more normally. So, it might be that adding game script info to the efficiency margin info (and the expected points per shot info) could enhance the predictive nature of team performance moving forward.
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