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Username Post: Harvard Starting Lineup Next Year
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
03-18-18 10:15 AM - Post#253679    
    In response to bradley

Top 25 is crazy talk, but it has happened - twice in the past 7 years.

To reach top 25 ranking, it appears that an Ivy squad would likely need to be hyped coming in and could possibly attain and hold a spot as long as it remains undefeated. A loss against a top 10 or top 15 opponent may not be fatal.

In 2011-12 Harvard spent a total of nine weeks in either the AP or Coaches Poll, reaching as high as No. 22 in the AP Poll on Jan. 2, and as high as No. 21 in the Coaches Poll twice. Harvard was tied for 25th in the preseason 2014 rankings.

In 2011-12 Harvard started 8-0, beating #22 FSU at the Battle for Atlantis. The polls were accepting of a loss at #9 UConn, but not a loss at Fordham in early January. After finishing OOC and starting Ivy League play with 9 more wins, at 21-2 Harvard made it back in at #25 until losing at Princeton. That team finished 26-5, 12-2 in the Ivy League, and lost to Vanderbilt in the NCAA first round.

The 2014-15 squad dropped from the rankings after losing to Holy Cross in its opening Div. 1 game.

For any Ivy squad to crack the top 25, it seems that there need to be extremely high expectations entering the season sustained by a not insignificant OOC run without a loss. A tough OOC loss (or 2?) might be overcome if followed by a perfect 14-0 Ivy campaign. An in-conference loss might have to be on the road and to another Ivy Squad with a strong ranking.

There is a phenomenon that could help an Ivy team. As Power 5 conference foes inevitably knock each other off, a strong (14-0) conference record + a tournament championship could nudge an Ivy team upwards in the polls (Coaches, AP), although possibly not in statistical evaluations (KenPom). We've seen certain mid-majors benefit from this concept. The pitfall is obviously OOC (and any in conference loss). Although the 2016-17 Princeton squad won all 16 conference games (and 19 consecutive games) that team was doomed in the rankings by a 4-6 OOC start. An Ivy squad with 2 or 3 OOC losses could sneak back into the polls with a perfect Ivy campaign and thus 16 straight wins to finish the season. A loss in the Ivy Tournament being so late in the season would certainly drop any squad significantly.


Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 03-18-18 10:17 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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