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Username Post: Harvard Starting Lineup Next Year
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-18-18 12:35 PM - Post#253694    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I never really understand what drives the Top 25 voting. I like to set goals against objective metrics, because it's easy to understand how one gets there (do this, get that vs. do this, see what voters think about it).

Harvard's best team was 2013-14. It finished 32nd at KenPom, won a tourney game and led Michigan State late in R32. For me, that's the mark to beat.

This team will have a more talented roster than that, but that's distinct from actual performance. The players need to be healthy, they need to develop, the best ones need to be on the court (from a lineup perspective) and so on. Talent is important (and it's hard to imagine Harvard not spending the next two years solidly in the Top 100 - as it would take more injuries than this year to keep them out with the incoming 2018 class). But you need to get all of the other stuff right to take a No. 80 team to No. 30 or better.

I disagree with the comment about changing philosophy and playing team offense. This year's team obviously struggled mightily without a point guard, but still finished top half nationally in assist rate, despite some of the necessary hero ball at times. That being said, this year was an anomaly for assist rate. Harvard has been in the Top 100 in that metric every year this decade otherwise, and all but one in the Top 75. That's the whole point of Tommy's philosophy. Use superior athleticism to get the opponent into rotation and then let your playmakers make plays for themselves or others.

This season, Harvard had a lack of playmakers and probably should have abandoned the motion offense, for something more "play" based that gave specific direction to relatively limited playmakers. That part of the observation is absolutely correct. But if Aiken returns healthy (and the team doesn't bizarrely slump from three for half a season before torching the nets), along with the other playmakers added to the roster, the motion offense should flourish again.

Harvard played the final two months of the season as a 110s-level team. It led the league in game script by a sizeable margin and eked out the efficiency margin title. It has easily the most upside for next year of any Ivy team. I just don't trust that Tommy will get to grinding right away and will likely spend the first two months experimenting with lineups. That should dampen the rating a fair deal.

The league is now entering year 2 of a three-year cycle. Year 1 was a bit of a bust due to key injuries/departures. Is what it is. Year 2 could be a dramatic ascension if we're far luckier with injuries but should be a solid step forward regardless. Harvard is positioned to be on the forefront of that rise, but we'll need to see who is actually available in early November to play the games.
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