mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-04-19 04:48 PM - Post#275049
In response to SomeGuy
That's something that I'm really watching closely. Over the past three years, 6-8 has been good enough for solo fourth. And the reason for that is the top three teams.
The more games those teams lose to the rest of the league, the more likely that 7-7 (or even 8-6) will be required. Over the past three years, the top three teams have lost 9, 9 and 7 games combined. Subtract the six that they have to lose to each other, and that means they dropped 3, 3 and 1 to the field. If you look at the three years before that it was 11, 12 and 13 and 7-7 or 8-6 did it.
Now, there's a corollary here that really crappy performance from the bottom teams can push up the wins required for fourth, but we haven't had a really crappy team in like 5 seasons now.
So far this season, through close to 30% of games, the top three teams have 1 loss against not the top three. Pace that out and that comes to 3.5 losses for the season, which would put us more in that 6-8 for fourth place range.
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