mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-04-19 07:50 PM - Post#275068
In response to SomeGuy
I'm most bullish on Yale at this point, primarily because six of their next eight are at home, and they've been very consistent. Anything less than 7-1 would probably be a disappointment. The two toughest remaining games are the final weekend when they should be long-since clinched the tourney they host.
I don't trust either of Harvard or Princeton yet - the Tigers less so of the two.
Princeton's offense has been terrible, and there doesn't appear to be an easily correctable element or reversion to the mean candidate in the bunch. This team is close to last nationally in FG pct at the rim, eschews 2pt Js and without Cannady has no consistent 3pt threats. While I think it'll do better than 0.90 ppp the rest of the way, I find it hard to believe it's going to get to 1 pop. That means you have to buy a defense that is currently holding opponents to a Top 50 FG pct at rim despite having an anemic block rate and one that is holding oppts to 20% shooting from three in league play.
I think the regression hits Princeton hard and fast, but it has enough home dates left for it to be hard to miss the tourney from here.
Harvard's story is a bit different. Turnovers are still a massive issue offensively, creating a drag on what has been an otherwise credible output. Giving away 25% of possessions each game isn't going to work, though. It will cause Harvard to drop some head-scratchers if it continues. What's more is that Harvard has been playing the 3pt lottery hard defensively in Ivy play (oppts are at 44.4% 3PA/FGA). That lottery already burned Harvard in Hanover and it's unlikely Harvard can avoid a repeat moving forward. That's bad news for a title chase (where dropping random games is hurtful) but good news for the tournament chase (where only losing random games still keeps you on solid footing to be top 4).
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