I am curious as to how MrJames would measure success/disappointment in the OOC for the two favorites, but here is my attempt:
Success:
Penn 8-3 or better
Harvard 12-2 or better
Disappointment:
Penn 6-5 or worse
Harvard 9-5 or worse
I think anything in-between would be viewed as SOP for the Ivy’s.
To persuade the NCAA Tournament Committee to choose an Ivy for an at-large bid, I think Penn &/or Harvard would have to exceed the Success projection with the other minimally matching the success record, and both Penn & Harvard would have to beat up on the other Ivy’s.