mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-30-20 12:37 PM - Post#297822
In response to palestra38
I haven't run the sims, but I'd think more likely than not 7 wins will get it done. Won't go through all the permutations there, but I think 7 will be enough.
First, Penn is close to 45% to be .500 after the weekend and should be favored in both games (Harvard could be a PK, but -1 to -2 makes more sense). In general, Penn is 80% or so to grab at least one from Harvard and Yale. 6-2 against the other four seems reasonable.
It feels like, to me, there are two paths to the tourney:
1) Sweep Brown. Any reasonable performance outside of that probably puts you in.
2) Put up 7+ wins (as long as Princeton finishes no better than 3rd - possibly 8 if they win the whole thing).
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