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PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
02-11-20 11:52 PM - Post#299608    
    In response to SomeGuy

  • SomeGuy Said:
Doesn’t this basically assume all teams are equal? Yale may have a more “difficult” path, but they will be favored in every game the rest of the way, while Harvard will not. Won’t your model almost always presume that a good team that plays its early season games on the road is in better shape than the team that played at home?



In a sense yes, at the start of the season everyone is at 0. If the home teams win the first 6 games, everyone will still be at 0. The reality is the regular season winner is almost always going to get to +4. Theoretically Cornell still has a path to do that. Yale could get to +6. Harvard’s ceiling is +4 right now.

THe model isn’t meant to rate the teams today. It’s really meant to show what kind of road they have ahead of them. Yale is currently at 0 and Harvard is +2. Harvard got to +2 by playing all their tough road games now while Yale is about to play those games. Really the model tells me Harvard is not in as bad of shape as 1-3 over the past 4 games might lead someone to believe. And Yale at 0 hasn’t really given up any ground yet either, despite the home loss to H. Negative numbers at this point aren’t that good and anyone at 0 or better is holding serve or better. The 4 likely candidates are currently 0 to +2.
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